Strait of Hormuz Simulation

What it does

SCN Global Flow Monitor is an interactive simulation tool that models how disruptions to the global crude oil trade network propagate across countries. Users select a disruption scenario—such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz—and watch the tool calculate cascading effects including price changes, reserve drawdowns, and supply shortages across importing and exporting nations. The underlying model treats oil trading relationships as a financial network where shocks ripple through bilateral connections, similar to the Eisenberg-Noe framework used in banking analysis.

The simulator runs on UN Comtrade trade data from 2025 and includes adjustable parameters like capacity retention, demand elasticity, and supply elasticity. Users can choose from preset scenarios (70% capacity for 12 weeks, 30% for 26 weeks, or 10% for 52 weeks) or create custom shock conditions.

Who it is for

The tool appears designed for supply chain analysts, policy researchers, and operations teams studying energy security and systemic risk. It originated as a pedagogical exercise in a Columbia supply chain class and evolved into a research instrument, suggesting academic and institutional use cases. Organizations interested in understanding geopolitical oil trade vulnerabilities or stress-testing energy dependencies would find it relevant.

Pricing

The site does not show prices.

How it stands out

Most oil market analysis focuses on price forecasting or individual country impacts. This tool models the entire network simultaneously, showing how one nation's shortage creates bottlenecks elsewhere. The underlying mechanics explicitly account for inventory depletion, price clearing, and strategic trade rebalancing rather than assuming fixed flows. The inclusion of bypass infrastructure options (East-West pipelines, alternative routes) adds realism to how networks respond to partial disruptions.

The work includes a peer-reviewed paper (arXiv:2607.17491) documenting the model's mathematical foundation, which distinguishes it from proprietary black-box tools.

What a founder should check

A competitor building similar functionality should verify: (1) whether existing energy modeling platforms (IHS, Wood Mackenzie, Argus) already offer comparable network-level stress testing, and at what price point; (2) how dependent the tool is on real-time or frequently updated trade data—UN Comtrade updates involve latency, and sanctioned or unreported flows are explicitly excluded, potentially limiting accuracy during crisis periods; (3) whether clients actually need interactive simulation or prefer static scenario reports, and whether the interactivity drives adoption or adds unnecessary complexity.